The Spread CFB

History & Accuracy

2026 (current)
6-2SU (75.0%)
4-4ATS (50.0%)
8 games decided

Calibration — predicted probability vs. actual win rate

Accuracy by confidence bucket
SegmentNSU%
55-60%1100.0%
60-65%1100.0%
65-70%10.0%
70-75%366.7%
95-100%2100.0%
By favorite vs. underdog pick
SegmentNSU%ATS%
Picked the favorite875.0%50.0%
By home / away / neutral
SegmentNSU%ATS%
Neutral site10.0%0.0%
Picked home team785.7%57.1%
By conference (picked team)
SegmentNSU%ATS%
ACC3100.0%66.7%
Mountain West250.0%50.0%
Big 1210.0%0.0%
Big Ten1100.0%0.0%
Mid-American1100.0%100.0%
Week-by-week log
Week 1SU 6-2 · ATS 4-4
North Carolina @ TCUpicked TCU (72%) TCU 10-15 North Carolina
San José State @ USCpicked USC (99%) USC 42-26 San José State
NC State @ Virginiapicked Virginia (59%) Virginia 34-8 NC State
Jacksonville State @ North Dakota Statepicked North Dakota State (70%) North Dakota State 33-7 Jacksonville State
Sacramento State @ Eastern Michiganpicked Eastern Michigan (74%) Eastern Michigan 28-17 Sacramento State
Hawai'i @ Stanfordpicked Stanford (62%) Stanford 37-27 Hawai'i
New Mexico State @ Florida Statepicked Florida State (97%) Florida State 34-17 New Mexico State
Memphis @ UNLVpicked UNLV (66%) UNLV 21-27 Memphis