History & Accuracy
2026 (current)
68-39SU (63.6%)
47-54-6ATS (46.5%)
107 games decided
Calibration — predicted probability vs. actual win rate
Accuracy by confidence bucket
| Segment | N | SU% |
|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 7 | 42.9% |
| 55-60% | 24 | 62.5% |
| 60-65% | 32 | 56.3% |
| 65-70% | 14 | 78.6% |
| 70-75% | 13 | 76.9% |
| 75-80% | 10 | 70.0% |
| 80-85% | 5 | 60.0% |
| 85-90% | 2 | 50.0% |
By favorite vs. underdog pick
| Segment | N | SU% | ATS% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Picked the favorite | 106 | 64.2% | 47.0% |
| Picked the underdog | 1 | 0.0% | 0.0% |
By home / away / neutral
| Segment | N | SU% | ATS% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Picked home team | 59 | 62.7% | 42.9% |
| Neutral site | 6 | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Picked away team | 42 | 64.3% | 52.5% |
By division (picked team)
| Segment | N | SU% | ATS% |
|---|---|---|---|
| NFC West | 20 | 55.0% | 38.9% |
| NFC North | 20 | 80.0% | 50.0% |
| AFC North | 16 | 68.8% | 57.1% |
| AFC South | 12 | 41.7% | 33.3% |
| AFC West | 11 | 81.8% | 63.6% |
| AFC East | 10 | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| NFC East | 9 | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| NFC South | 9 | 33.3% | 33.3% |
Week-by-week log
Week 8SU 68-39 · ATS 47-55
Carolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packerspicked Green Bay Packers (62%)✓ Green Bay Packers 27-19 Carolina Panthers
Week 7SU 67-39 · ATS 46-55
New England Patriots @ Chicago Bearspicked Chicago Bears (58%)✓ Chicago Bears 30-24 New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New Orleans Saintspicked Pittsburgh Steelers (64%)✓ New Orleans Saints 10-16 Pittsburgh Steelers
San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falconspicked San Francisco 49ers (62%)✗ Atlanta Falcons 29-20 San Francisco 49ers
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravenspicked Cincinnati Bengals (61%)✓ Baltimore Ravens 13-35 Cincinnati Bengals
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Pantherspicked Carolina Panthers (60%)✗ Carolina Panthers 13-43 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New York Giants @ Houston Texanspicked Houston Texans (80%)✗ Houston Texans 21-27 New York Giants
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikingspicked Minnesota Vikings (73%)✓ Minnesota Vikings 16-10 Indianapolis Colts
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jetspicked New York Jets (61%)✗ New York Jets 25-28 Miami Dolphins
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titanspicked Cleveland Browns (59%)✓ Tennessee Titans 24-27 Cleveland Browns
Denver Broncos @ Arizona Cardinalspicked Denver Broncos (69%)✓ Arizona Cardinals 16-30 Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lionspicked Detroit Lions (61%)✓ Detroit Lions 20-17 Green Bay Packers
Los Angeles Rams @ Las Vegas Raiderspicked Los Angeles Rams (65%)✓ Las Vegas Raiders 21-35 Los Angeles Rams
Kansas City Chiefs @ Seattle Seahawkspicked Seattle Seahawks (57%)✓ Seattle Seahawks 20-3 Kansas City Chiefs
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eaglespicked Dallas Cowboys (65%)✓ Philadelphia Eagles 21-38 Dallas Cowboys
Week 6SU 57-35 · ATS 38-49
Seattle Seahawks @ Denver Broncospicked Seattle Seahawks (62%)✗ Denver Broncos 17-14 Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguarspicked Jacksonville Jaguars (60%)✗ Jacksonville Jaguars 31-34 Houston Texans
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falconspicked Chicago Bears (58%)✓ Atlanta Falcons 23-31 Chicago Bears
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Brownspicked Baltimore Ravens (64%)✗ Cleveland Browns 13-10 Baltimore Ravens
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Coltspicked Indianapolis Colts (73%)✗ Indianapolis Colts 20-26 Tennessee Titans
New York Jets @ New England Patriotspicked New England Patriots (76%)✓ New England Patriots 26-19 New York Jets
New Orleans Saints @ New York Giantspicked New Orleans Saints (55%)✓ New York Giants 27-34 New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eaglespicked Carolina Panthers (62%)✓ Philadelphia Eagles 14-25 Carolina Panthers
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneerspicked Pittsburgh Steelers (60%)✓ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-26 Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Ramspicked Los Angeles Rams (86%)✗ Los Angeles Rams 16-18 Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefspicked Kansas City Chiefs (76%)✓ Kansas City Chiefs 22-6 Los Angeles Chargers
Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiderspicked Buffalo Bills (72%)✓ Las Vegas Raiders 30-33 Buffalo Bills
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packerspicked Dallas Cowboys (53%)✗ Green Bay Packers 23-13 Dallas Cowboys
Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49erspicked San Francisco 49ers (76%)✓ San Francisco 49ers 23-17 Washington Commanders
Week 5SU 49-29 · ATS 33-40
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboyspicked Dallas Cowboys (78%)✗ Dallas Cowboys 16-24 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguarspicked Jacksonville Jaguars (75%)✓ Jacksonville Jaguars 19-17 Philadelphia Eagles
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packerspicked Chicago Bears (59%)✗ Green Bay Packers 31-7 Chicago Bears
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphinspicked Cincinnati Bengals (76%)✓ Miami Dolphins 24-31 Cincinnati Bengals
Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriotspicked New England Patriots (61%)✓ New England Patriots 45-17 Las Vegas Raiders
Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saintspicked Minnesota Vikings (63%)✓ New Orleans Saints 13-23 Minnesota Vikings
Cleveland Browns @ New York Jetspicked New York Jets (55%)✓ New York Jets 17-12 Cleveland Browns
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelerspicked Pittsburgh Steelers (58%)✓ Pittsburgh Steelers 34-22 Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titanspicked Houston Texans (74%)✓ Tennessee Titans 3-26 Houston Texans
New York Giants @ Washington Commanderspicked Washington Commanders (58%)✗ Washington Commanders 27-27 New York Giants
Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargerspicked Denver Broncos (66%)✓ Los Angeles Chargers 17-23 Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinalspicked Detroit Lions (71%)✓ Arizona Cardinals 21-45 Detroit Lions
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawkspicked Seattle Seahawks (58%)✗ Seattle Seahawks 29-32 San Francisco 49ers
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falconspicked Atlanta Falcons (58%)✗ Atlanta Falcons 23-30 Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Ramspicked Los Angeles Rams (61%)✗ Los Angeles Rams 34-37 Buffalo Bills
Week 4SU 40-24 · ATS 26-33
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Brownspicked Pittsburgh Steelers (61%)✗ Cleveland Browns 27-24 Pittsburgh Steelers
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanderspicked Indianapolis Colts (67%)✓ Washington Commanders 13-30 Indianapolis Colts
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravenspicked Baltimore Ravens (84%)✓ Baltimore Ravens 24-18 Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Billspicked Buffalo Bills (72%)✗ Buffalo Bills 26-29 New England Patriots
New York Jets @ Chicago Bearspicked Chicago Bears (64%)✓ Chicago Bears 23-12 New York Jets
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengalspicked Cincinnati Bengals (53%)✗ Cincinnati Bengals 17-22 Jacksonville Jaguars
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texanspicked Houston Texans (60%)✗ Houston Texans 30-34 Dallas Cowboys
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giantspicked Arizona Cardinals (59%)✗ New York Giants 36-24 Arizona Cardinals
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eaglespicked Los Angeles Rams (64%)✓ Philadelphia Eagles 20-24 Los Angeles Rams
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneerspicked Green Bay Packers (59%)✓ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14-17 Green Bay Packers
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikingspicked Minnesota Vikings (82%)✓ Minnesota Vikings 15-10 Miami Dolphins
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiderspicked Kansas City Chiefs (69%)✓ Las Vegas Raiders 27-30 Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawkspicked Seattle Seahawks (75%)✓ Seattle Seahawks 30-23 Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49erspicked San Francisco 49ers (62%)✓ San Francisco 49ers 24-14 Denver Broncos
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Pantherspicked Detroit Lions (66%)✗ Carolina Panthers 32-26 Detroit Lions
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saintspicked New Orleans Saints (55%)✗ New Orleans Saints 24-45 Atlanta Falcons
Week 3SU 31-17 · ATS 22-23
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packerspicked Green Bay Packers (67%)✗ Green Bay Packers 14-35 Atlanta Falcons
Los Angeles Chargers @ Buffalo Billspicked Buffalo Bills (75%)✓ Buffalo Bills 24-16 Los Angeles Chargers
Carolina Panthers @ Cleveland Brownspicked Carolina Panthers (62%)✗ Cleveland Browns 21-18 Carolina Panthers
New York Jets @ Detroit Lionspicked Detroit Lions (74%)✓ Detroit Lions 31-24 New York Jets
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Coltspicked Houston Texans (56%)✗ Indianapolis Colts 19-17 Houston Texans
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguarspicked Jacksonville Jaguars (57%)✓ Jacksonville Jaguars 35-6 New England Patriots
Kansas City Chiefs @ Miami Dolphinspicked Kansas City Chiefs (83%)✓ Miami Dolphins 10-24 Kansas City Chiefs
Tennessee Titans @ New York Giantspicked New York Giants (60%)✓ New York Giants 12-7 Tennessee Titans
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelerspicked Cincinnati Bengals (63%)✗ Pittsburgh Steelers 30-27 Cincinnati Bengals
Seattle Seahawks @ Washington Commanderspicked Seattle Seahawks (80%)✗ Washington Commanders 33-31 Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49erspicked San Francisco 49ers (76%)✓ San Francisco 49ers 36-30 Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneerspicked Minnesota Vikings (60%)✓ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-23 Minnesota Vikings
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboyspicked Baltimore Ravens (64%)✓ Dallas Cowboys 31-34 Baltimore Ravens
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saintspicked New Orleans Saints (61%)✗ New Orleans Saints 27-35 Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Rams @ Denver Broncospicked Los Angeles Rams (51%)✗ Denver Broncos 30-26 Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bearspicked Philadelphia Eagles (59%)✗ Chicago Bears 27-7 Philadelphia Eagles
Week 2SU 23-9 · ATS 17-14
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Billspicked Buffalo Bills (68%)✓ Buffalo Bills 41-31 Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falconspicked Carolina Panthers (56%)✓ Atlanta Falcons 3-34 Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints @ Baltimore Ravenspicked Baltimore Ravens (78%)✗ Baltimore Ravens 17-24 New Orleans Saints
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bearspicked Chicago Bears (64%)✗ Chicago Bears 3-9 Minnesota Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texanspicked Houston Texans (60%)✗ Houston Texans 6-20 Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriotspicked New England Patriots (63%)✓ New England Patriots 20-3 Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers @ New York Jetspicked Green Bay Packers (59%)✓ New York Jets 17-20 Green Bay Packers
Cleveland Browns @ Tampa Bay Buccaneerspicked Tampa Bay Buccaneers (77%)✗ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-23 Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles @ Tennessee Titanspicked Philadelphia Eagles (77%)✓ Tennessee Titans 20-24 Philadelphia Eagles
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncospicked Denver Broncos (52%)✓ Denver Broncos 20-13 Jacksonville Jaguars
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargerspicked Los Angeles Chargers (67%)✗ Los Angeles Chargers 14-26 Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinalspicked Seattle Seahawks (66%)✓ Arizona Cardinals 7-31 Seattle Seahawks
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboyspicked Dallas Cowboys (61%)✓ Dallas Cowboys 37-20 Washington Commanders
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49erspicked San Francisco 49ers (87%)✓ San Francisco 49ers 35-13 Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefspicked Kansas City Chiefs (72%)✓ Kansas City Chiefs 33-30 Indianapolis Colts
New York Giants @ Los Angeles Ramspicked Los Angeles Rams (70%)✓ Los Angeles Rams 28-6 New York Giants
Week 1SU 12-4 · ATS 9-6
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawkspicked Seattle Seahawks (60%)✓ Seattle Seahawks 13-10 New England Patriots
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Ramspicked Los Angeles Rams (59%)✗ Los Angeles Rams 7-27 San Francisco 49ers
Chicago Bears @ Carolina Pantherspicked Chicago Bears (62%)✓ Carolina Panthers 37-59 Chicago Bears
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengalspicked Cincinnati Bengals (62%)✓ Cincinnati Bengals 33-27 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lionspicked Detroit Lions (71%)✓ Detroit Lions 31-30 New Orleans Saints
Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texanspicked Buffalo Bills (56%)✓ Houston Texans 31-36 Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Coltspicked Baltimore Ravens (60%)✓ Indianapolis Colts 23-41 Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguarspicked Jacksonville Jaguars (74%)✓ Jacksonville Jaguars 34-10 Cleveland Browns
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelerspicked Pittsburgh Steelers (70%)✓ Pittsburgh Steelers 20-13 Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets @ Tennessee Titanspicked Tennessee Titans (54%)✗ Tennessee Titans 10-23 New York Jets
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargerspicked Los Angeles Chargers (74%)✗ Los Angeles Chargers 14-26 Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiderspicked Las Vegas Raiders (58%)✓ Las Vegas Raiders 27-13 Miami Dolphins
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikingspicked Minnesota Vikings (54%)✓ Minnesota Vikings 39-22 Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eaglespicked Philadelphia Eagles (68%)✓ Philadelphia Eagles 24-22 Washington Commanders
Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giantspicked Dallas Cowboys (62%)✗ New York Giants 28-20 Dallas Cowboys
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefspicked Kansas City Chiefs (57%)✓ Kansas City Chiefs 31-10 Denver Broncos